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Afternoon Notes

RotoAuthority’s Tim Dierkes has some research on BABIP:

According to Baseball Prospectus, the definition of BABIP:

“Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher’s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher’s defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.”

Last year, eleven pitchers had a BABIP below .270: Clemens, Zito, Blanton, Pedro, Zambrano, Wakefield, Chen, Contreras, Benson, Santana, and Marquis.  The lowest was Clemens at .248.

I think it’s fairly safe to say that pitchers with BABIPs below .250 cannot expect it to last.  The following pitchers all have a BABIP of .230 or lower currently (remember, no one did this last year).

Taylor Buchholz – .125

…This seems likely to be a first time around the league type thing.  Same goes for Buchholz and Bannister.  Even Verlander, but probably to a lesser extent because his stuff is nasty.  While their 15 minutes may not be up and some of these guys will be decent, it is time to start thinking about selling high.

And BP’s Will Carroll clarifies the Wood rehab:

I’m apparently as smart as a lugnut. Kerry Wood will not be a Lugnut, as I stated yesterday, since the Cubs now have an affiliation with the Peoria Chiefs. The error is entirely mine, exacerbated by the fact that his May 7th start will come against the Lugnuts. Everything else in my report is accurate and I apologize for the error.

Lastly, some injury news:

Reds placed outfielder Cody Ross on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 29, with a bruised left pinkie. Ross was hurt when he was hit by a pitch in his first plate appearance for the Reds. Chris Denorfia will replace him off the bench.